friendly Free Trade Agreement…?
Opponents of the UK remaining in the EU argue that, after the UK leaves the EU, there will be a friendly Free Trade Agreement concluded between the UK and EU. This is absolutely not definite. It is also quite possible that other EU countries will not welcome the UK leaving the EU. A rapidly negotiated Free Trade Agreement, although it would be the best solution for the UK and the EU, would not be a simple or quick issue.
The main reason is the fear by the EU that the UK could be followed by other EU countries. If these countries could see that, when leaving the EU, they could quickly negotiate a favourable Free Trade Agreement, they would certainly begin considering this alternative (Sweden, Denmark).
Norwegian and Swiss-style association agreements…best solution for the UK…?
The Norwegian and Swiss-style association agreements are not the best solution for the UK. Norway has to pay huge sums of money to the EU budget. Norway must also allow free movement of persons for access to the free market. There is also the possibility of abusing the welfare system by workers from EU member countries. For example, Switzerland has more than 100 separately negotiated treaties with the EU. Furthermore, the EU has already declared that the framework for relations with Switzerland is complicated, and has reached its peak.
The EU might be afraid of a domino effect. But on the other hand, EU leaders led by politicians from Germany and France, might fear that, if a substantial proportion of EU workers (mainly from Eastern and Southern Europe) returns from the UK, it will affect the labour market in other EU countries. So the attempt to weaken the UK in the economic area would appear to be counterproductive and dangerous to the EU in the medium term.
The question is whether this outweighs the „economic“ view, or the feeling of resentment at the UK for leaving the EU. Possibly because of the domino effect, the EU, led by France and Germany, will strive to „deter“ other countries that consider the same step as the UK. For countries like France and Germany, the fact that, after Brexit, the UK keeps workers from the EU states on its territory, means an advantage and less pressure on their labour markets.